Italy is on the brink of securing a fifth spot in the Champions League, but there's a chance they could have six teams in the tournament. After the first leg of the quarter-finals, Serie A is almost certain to get one of the two extra places in the expanded 2024-25 Champions League.
According to Sky Sports, Italy has a 99.8% chance of securing this spot, compared to England (57.8%), Germany (41.8%), France (0.4%), and Spain (0.1%).
If Atalanta avoids defeat against Liverpool and Fiorentina beats Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League and Conference League respectively, Italy will secure the extra spot.
Furthermore, if Roma or Atalanta win the Europa League but finish outside the Serie A top four, they'll also qualify for the Champions League. This could potentially push the spot down to sixth place in Serie A.
However, UEFA hasn't fully clarified how the extra Champions League spot will be assigned regarding the Europa League winner. Clubs might seek further clarification before the Final, especially with the tight competition for a top-five spot in Serie A.
