What would have been a 'fair' scoreline in Soton v Liverpool? Answered through stats

71
26
What would have been a 'fair' scoreline in Soton v Liverpool? Answered through stats

With nothing to play for, Liverpool and Southampton gave us an insane roller-coaster of game on the final day of the season.

It was an eight-game thriller full of beautiful moments — like Firmino's farewell goal, Ward-Prowse's skillful strike, Trent's free-kick cross for Matip and Sulemana's somersault — and also plenty of ridiculous ones, such as Lavia's 'assist' for Jota or Liverpool's defending for the Saints' opener (sorry Trent, Joel, Joe and Kostas).

It's fitting that it ended in a 4-4 draw, with both sides enjoying themselves and letting fans enjoy the game — but who deserved to win more?

The stats say that while the Reds completely dominated possession (69% v just 31%). the Saints had more shots on target than Liverpool (10 compared to 8).

However, Southampton's shots were less dangerous than Liverpool's as the hosts created just two big chances compared to Liverpool's six. The Reds missed two of them (both Salah shortly after the break and in added time).

Liverpool outperformed the Saints on expected goals (xG), 3.85 to 1.77. So the fair result would have been a Liverpool win, 4-2 or something like that.

AuthorAleksei Blokhin
71
26
Best
Newest
Oldest