What would've been 'fair' scoreline for Chelsea vs Newcastle? Stats-based answer

On Sunday, Chelsea drew Newcastle 1-1 in the last game of the 2022/23 season.

According to SofaScore, both sides underperformed in terms of converting their chances.

Chelsea registered 2.21 xG (expected goals), while Newcastle had 1.7 xG.

The same source claims that the Blues failed to convert two 'big chances'.

Both of those opportunities came late in the game. Christian Pulisic failed to beat Martin Dubravka in the 90th minute before Joao Felix headed it over the bar in the third minute of injury time.

To be fair, Newcastle also squandered one 'big chance' in the first half.

It means that both sides should've scored more. As a result, a 'fair' scoreline of the game would've been a 2-2 draw, so Chelsea and Newcastle arguably got what they deserved from the game.