On Monday, we rounded up the latest transfer rumours involving Chelsea. Ten players are linked with a move to the Bridge, nine players could depart.
But rumours can be misleading. So we've ranked them by the probability of these transfers happening.
Unlikely
Theo Hernandez to Chelsea: 1/10. Chelsea's interest in the AC Milan left-back has been mentioned only in passing. It looks like the Blues won't bid for the Frenchman.
Wesley Fofana to Chelsea: 1/10. The Leicester man is occasionally linked with a switch to the Bridge. But it looks like Chelsea prefer Kounde to him and would try to get Fofana only if they fail to sign the Sevilla centre-back.
Lucas Digne to Chelsea: 2/10. The French full-back seems to be on his way to Villa as the Blues are focusing on getting Emerson back.
Kepa Arrizabalaga to leave: 2/10. Italian sources have been particularly insistent with reporting on Lazio's interest in the goalie. A Sarri-Kepa reunion is a beautiful story on paper but it doesn't make much sense in reality.
The Basque seems to be happy playing second fiddle to Mendy and he's on a huge contract Lazio can't afford, Chelsea having to rely on Bettinelli if Kepa goes... We'd be very surprised if the deal goes through.
Ousmane Dembele to Chelsea: 2/10. The Barca forward is linked with literally every big club in the world as he tries to hold the Catalans to ransom so he gets a huge contract there. No reputable source confirmed Chelsea's interest in Dembele so a move appears very unlikely at the moment.
Romelu Lukaku to PSG: 2/10. Foot Mercato, a French source, claim that PSG want Big Rom to replace Mbappe. PSG have the money to pay around £100m to recoup what the Blues paid to sign him, but we can see the transfer happening only if Haaland joins Chelsea and Lukaku is no longer needed.
Saul Niguez to stay at Chelsea beyond June 2022: 3/10. The Athletic reported that the Blues are not planning to make the Spaniard's move permanent. However, Saul has plenty of time to turn this around.
Sergino Dest to Chelsea: 3/10. Chelsea are said to be the long-term admirers of the 21-year-old. Barcelona are open to parting ways with him but his agent recently came out and said Dest is not leaving Camp Nou.
Cesar Azpilicueta to leave: 3/10. Atletico and Barca are said to be tracking the captain. His priority seems to be Chelsea though.
Declan Rice to Chelsea: 3/10. The West Ham midfielder is high on the Blues shortlist. But it'll be clearer in the summer if he joins Chelsea or not.
Erling Haaland to Chelsea: 4/10. The Blues want the Norwegian and are planning to try to get him in the summer. However, he is definitely not leaving Dortmund in January and it's too early to speculate about a summer move, especially amid reports that he prefers La Liga to Serie A.
Aurelien Tchouameni to Chelsea: 4/10. The Blues will probably go for either Tchouameni or Declan Rice in the summer. With West Ham demanding £100m for Rice, Chelsea might be tempted to focus on landing the AC Milan midfielder instead.
Probable
Andreas Christensen to leave: 6/10. Everything is complicated with the Dane. One day, he is reported to be ready to sign a new contract, the next day he allegedly changes agents to facilitate a move to Barcelona. However, it looks increasingly likely that he'll go. Unfortunately.
Jules Kounde to Chelsea: 7/10. A summer move is likely for the Blues after a failed transfer last August. Kounde still tops Chelsea's centre-back shortlist so they'll probably come back with another offer.
Ross Barkley to leave: 7/10. The Englishman reportedly has several loan options and Chelsea seem to be open to letting him go now Saul seems to have found his groove.
Antonio Rudiger to leave: 7/10. Real Madrid have dropped their interest while Bayern are unlikely to satisfy Toni's financial demands. The centre-back might end up having no other option than to extend his Chelsea stay — on Chelsea's terms!
However, PSG have supposedly expressed interest in the German so his departure is still likelier than a new deal.
Lewis Baker to leave: 8/10. Chelsea don't want the midfielder and are prepared to part ways with him. The question is if he manages to find a club for himself: there were no suitors in the summer.
Emerson Palmieri to Chelsea: 8/10. The biggest obstacle to the Italo-Brazilian returning to the Bridge is Lyon. The French side don't want to terminate his loan. It remains to be seen whether Chelsea and Lyon find an agreement that suits both parties as the Ligue 1 side are under no obligation to cancel the loan.
But recalling Emerson seems to be Chelsea's priority this month after injuries to Chilly and Reece. So we expect the deal to go through, one way or another.
Malang Sarr to leave: 10/10. A loan move away is very much on the cards for the young defender who at the moment is definitely not good enough to play first-team football at Chelsea. West Ham, Watford, AC Milan, Napoli, Bologna have all been linked with interest. Plenty of options for the Frenchman.
